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Public track record · 2 confirmed · 0 missed · 0 open · 45 tests still open on a withdrawn pack, due from 2026-11-10
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Research notes and sources
Latest playbook output
Updated 2026-07
AI materials: July revenue held up.
The official July monthly-revenue release resolved two conditions that EquityLayer registered before the data arrived.
Sources and method
Registered view
The July revenue data for EquityLayer's tracked Taiwan AI-materials slice does not show broad near-term deterioration relative to June.
Why now
The official July monthly-revenue release resolved two conditions that EquityLayer registered before the data arrived.
What changed
Initial snapshot. Save this Research Pack version locally for the next research update.
Supporting evidence
台光電 reported 21532230 thousand TWD of revenue for 2026-09; +6.88% month over month and +168.87% year over year.
Counterevidence
None recorded at the current evidence boundary.
Falsifier
Official July revenue is below NT$16.74B. Both companies report July revenue below -3% month over month.
Next trigger
Refresh after the official August 2026 Taiwan monthly-revenue release and compare it with the preserved July snapshot.
The materials sell-off vs the June prints: what July revenue must show
NVIDIA's GB300-to-Rubin ramp does not only ship more GPUs. Every rack carries more CCL layers, more ABF film, more silicon wafer, and more industrial gas. Many of the companies that make those inputs are in Taiwan and Japan.
Taiwan's materials names printed strong June revenue before selling off alongside the broader market. One company-specific concern was a reported delay to Kyber's 78-layer M9 midplane. Our working view is that the timing change affects the later upgrade leg more than the current Rubin and GB300 ramp. That makes the next monthly revenue release a useful test of whether the sell-off reflects macro pressure or a genuine deterioration in the supply-chain thesis.
2383.TW EMC8046.TW Nan Ya PCB3037.TW Unimicron2802.T Ajinomoto4063.T Shin-Etsu4091.T Nippon Sanso1229.TW Lien Hwa
Compiled from issuer filings due 2026-07-10. Baseline June figures for 2383.TW, 8046.TW, and 3037.TW; retained as the prior snapshot so the July change can be reproduced.
Verify this yourself TWSE open data, JSON, no API key: one row per listed company. Match 公司代號 to the ticker (2383, 8046, 3037), check 資料年月 is 11506 for June 2026, and read 營業收入-當月營收 — the monthly revenue figure, in thousands of NT$.
Official July snapshot for 2383.TW at NT$19.21B (+8.31% MoM), 3037.TW at NT$16.25B (+9.11% MoM), and 8046.TW at NT$5.44B (+16.13% MoM). This is the evidence used to resolve both 2026-08-10 claims.
EMC (2383.TW) July revenue holds above NT$16.74B, the floor that keeps year-over-year growth in triple digits.
Decided 2026-08-10 — MOPS July monthly revenue. At or above NT$17.7B supports the mispricing view; below NT$16.74B together with a guidance cut opens the structural-damage scenario.
Amendment 2026-07-31: Amended before resolution to map the full outcome space: ≥ NT$17.7B → Confirmed. NT$16.74B–17.7B → Mixed. < NT$16.74B → Missed (with or without a guidance cut; a cut is corroborating context, not a required condition).
Confirmed
The reported Kyber M9 delay does not bleed into the current ramp: Nan Ya PCB and Unimicron both hold July revenue roughly flat or higher month over month.
Decided 2026-08-10 — MOPS July monthly revenue for 8046.TW and 3037.TW. Both roughly flat or higher supports a contained timing issue; broad weakness would challenge that interpretation.
Amendment 2026-07-31: Amended before resolution to replace 'roughly flat' with numeric bands, both companies measured MoM on MOPS July revenue: both ≥ −3% → Confirmed. One ≥ −3%, one below → Mixed. Both < −3% → Missed.
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Research views, not buy or sell calls. General information only, not investment advice. Claims are recorded before their due dates; confirmed, mixed, and missed outcomes remain visible in the public ledger.